Capricorn Energy
Annual Report 2019

Plain-text annual report

C a i r n E n e r g y P L C A n n u a l R e p o r t a n d A c c o u n t s 2 0 1 9 C R E A T I N G V A L U E R E S P O N S I B L Y C A I R N E N E R G Y P L C A N N U A L R E P O R T a n d A C C O U N T S 2 0 1 9 Cairn Energy PLC is an independent, UK-based oil and gas exploration, development and production company. Cairn has explored, discovered, developed and produced oil and gas in a variety of locations throughout the world and has extensive experience as operator and partner in all stages of the oil and gas life cycle. Creating value responsibly Cairn is committed to working responsibly as part of our strategy to deliver value for all stakeholders. This means working in a safe, secure, environmentally and socially responsible manner. Strategic Report At a Glance CEO’s Review Business Model A Responsible Approach United Nations Sustainable Development Goals UN SDGs in Action External Industry Overview Operational Review Our Strategy Risk Management Principal Risks to the Group in 2019–2020 Climate Change Policy and Energy Transition Stakeholder Engagement Prioritising Issues Important to Stakeholders and Cairn Responsible Governance Behaving Responsibly to People Behaving Responsibly Towards the Environment Behaving Responsibly to Society Financial Review Leadership and Governance Board of Directors Corporate Governance Statement Audit Committee Report Nomination Committee Report Directors’ Remuneration Report Directors’ Report 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 32 36 39 46 50 52 54 56 60 63 66 74 76 87 92 94 124 Financial Statements Independent Auditor’s Report Group Income Statement Group Statement of Comprehensive Income Group Balance Sheet Group Statement of Cash Flows Group Statement of Changes in Equity Section 1 – Basis of Preparation Section 2 – Oil and Gas Assets and Operations Section 3 – Working Capital, Financial Instruments and Long-term Liabilities Section 4 – Income Statement Analysis Section 5 – Taxation Section 6 – Discontinued Operations and Assets and Liabilities Held-For-Sale Section 7 – Capital Structure and Other Disclosures Company Balance Sheet Company Statement of Cash Flows Company Statement of Changes in Equity Section 8 – Notes to the Company Financial Statements Additional Information Licence List Group Reserves and Resources Glossary Company Information 130 136 136 137 138 139 140 144 155 165 172 177 180 183 184 185 186 193 194 195 197 This annual report sets out the performance of Cairn Energy in the 2019 financial year and relevant non-financial information on environmental and social matters has been integrated.  Additional information can be found in our Corporate Responsibility Report at cairnenergy.com/working-responsibly  Discover more at www.cairnenergy.com/ar2019 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T 2019 Highlights Net oil production averaged (bopd) Oil and gas sales revenue Net cash inflow ~23,000 US$504m US$390m 2019 2018 ~23,000 17,533 2019 2018 US$504m US$396m 2019 2018 US$229m US$390m Capital expenditure Year end Group cash US$242m* US$147m  Read more: Financial Review on P66 and Operational Review on P18 2019 2018 US$242m US$284m 2019 2018 US$66m US$147m * Net of US$27m tax refund and US$21m Nova working capital reimbursement. Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 1 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T At a Glance CEO’s Review Business Model A Responsible Approach United Nations Sustainable Development Goals UN SDGs in Action External Industry Overview Operational Review Our Strategy Risk Management Principal Risks to the Group in 2019–2020 Climate Change Policy and Energy Transition Stakeholder Engagement Prioritising Issues Important to Stakeholders and Cairn Responsible Governance Behaving Responsibly to People Behaving Responsibly Towards the Environment Behaving Responsibly to Society Financial Review 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 32 36 39 46 50 52 54 56 60 63 66 2 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 3 UK MAURITANIA SENEGAL CÔTE D’IVOIRE ISRAEL S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T At a Glance Our portfolio Cairn's exploration activities have a geographical focus in North West Europe, West Africa and Latin America, underpinned by interests in production assets in the UK North Sea. Our headquarters are in Edinburgh, Scotland supported by operational offices in London, Senegal and Mexico. MEXICO SURINAME Exploration Development Production We hold emerging acreage in Senegal, Mexico, Israel and Mauritania; frontier acreage in Suriname and Côte d’Ivoire and mature acreage in the UK. We hold an interest in the Sangomar Field (Senegal) development project. This was an exploration asset which we have progressed into development. We hold non-operated interests in two production assets in the UK North Sea, Catcher and Kraken, which delivered first oil in 2017. Where we operate Suriname Exploration 1 licence Mexico Exploration 3 licences Israel Exploration 8 licences 13,080 km2 acreage 1,648 km2 acreage 2,698 km2 acreage Note: Post 2019 year end, Cairn no longer holds interests in Norway, Republic of Ireland and Nicaragua. 4 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 MEXICO SURINAME S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T ISRAEL UK MAURITANIA SENEGAL CÔTE D’IVOIRE Net oil production averaged ~23,000 bopd 2019 2018 ~23,000 17,533 Côte d’Ivoire Mauritania Exploration 7 licences 8,621 km2 acreage Exploration 1 licence option 7,253 km2 acreage Senegal Exploration 3 licences UK Exploration 12 licences 7,137 km2 acreage 3,100 km2 acreage Development 1 development field (Sangomar Field) Production 2 producing fields (Catcher & Kraken) Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 5 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T CEO’s Review Simon Thomson, Chief Executive Officer C O M M I T T E D T O C R E A T I N G V A L U E R E S P O N S I B L Y 6 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T Working Responsibly2 Our culture is deeply rooted in our commitment to working responsibly. This means working to deliver value for our stakeholders in a safe, secure, environmentally and socially responsible manner. This is how we retain the trust and support of our stakeholders, which enables us to operate. Our longstanding core values are at the heart of our culture. They are known as the 3R’s: Respect, Relationships and Responsibility. Our Code of Ethics sets out these core values as well as the behaviours and principles which we expect not only our employees, but all those who we work with, to apply on the Company’s behalf. Externally, adherence to key global agreements and standards promoting responsible working practices within business is also critical to us. This includes the United Nations Global Compact, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Board Changes Cairn appointed two new independent non-executive directors, with Catherine Krajicek and Alison Wood joining the Board in H2 2019. Cairn today announced the appointment of Erik B Daugbjerg as an independent non-executive director with effect from 14 May 2020. Following this appointment, Todd Hunt will retire as a non- executive director immediately following the Company’s Annual General Meeting on 14 May 2020. Simon Thomson Chief Executive Officer Cairn’s strong operational performance in 2019 was delivered through production and cash flow generation at the top end of guidance and the Group ended the year with an increased net cash position and undrawn debt facilities. A significant milestone was achieved in Senegal with a Final Investment Decision taken for the Sangomar development. Reserve additions were made in both Senegal and the North Sea and the Company encountered exploration success alongside Eni in Mexico. The sale of Cairn’s Norwegian business, combined with exits from exploration positions in Ireland and Nicaragua, demonstrate continued focus on capital allocation as the company seeks to generate further value for shareholders on a sustainable basis. In the year ahead, Cairn looks forward to continuing its near-term exploration drilling programme offshore Mexico whilst progressing the first phase of development execution offshore Senegal. These activities are supported by strong cash flow from our producing assets and a continued fiscal discipline on balancing expenditure. In addition, we anticipate resolution of the proceedings against the Government of India under the UK-India Investment Treaty. Cairn will continue to focus on executing and delivering its strategy efficiently and responsibly as it seeks to add further value for shareholders. Energy Transition1 Cairn recognises that the world is facing significant challenges associated with climate change and we acknowledge that global commitments to minimise temperature rises will require significant growth in lower carbon energy sources. Throughout the year the Board continued to focus on the associated risks and appropriately positioning the company’s strategy. Cairn’s strategy is to play a responsible and competitive role in the production of oil and gas within this transition, providing affordable, sustainable energy alongside renewable sources. We are committed to ensuring our investment decisions are targeting resources that can play a part in the global energy mix and will continue to attract capital in a world where demand for hydrocarbons may be below today’s levels. We are actively engaged in reducing our carbon emissions wherever possible. Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 7 1 Read more on P46 2 Read more on P10 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T Business Model Cairn’s business model is to hold assets within the oil and gas life cycle in order to create, add and deliver value for stakeholders. The cash flow from production assets funds exploration, appraisal and development activity, making the business model largely self-funding. Assets can be monetised at different points of the life cycle in order to optimise the portfolio. EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL 4-8 years Identify Explore C R E ATI N G VA LU E Exploration activity, including seismic surveying and drilling, can create material value. OU R STRE N GTHS AN D CAPAB I LITI E S #1 Self-funding business model Our production assets provide the cash flow to sustain exploration, appraisal and development activity. In 2012 we acquired non-operated interests in two UK North Sea development assets, Kraken and Catcher, to provide future cash flow for the business. Both assets started producing in 2017. As this production continues to deliver over time, we will seek to bring on production from new assets to replace it. #2 Financial flexibility Operating a full cycle exploration, development and production business gives us financial flexibility to deliver our strategic objectives, year on year. We maintain a strong funding position through cash flow from our production assets and a largely undrawn debt facility. This allows us to actively assess new venture opportunities and deliver immediate activity. We also apply strict capital discipline to our investment decisions and actively manage our portfolio to optimise capital allocation. #3 Frontier exploration positions Our exploration activity is principally in frontier and emerging basins where the greatest potential value exists. Our frontier exploration position in Senegal, acquired in 2013, has yielded material exploration success and we continue to feed our pipeline of exploration assets, acquiring exploration acreage in a number of new countries during 2018 and 2019. #4 Skills, experience and collective expertise of our workforce Our employees, contractors and suppliers provide the necessary expertise and resources to deliver our work programmes. We ensure they have the right training, tools and knowledge in order to help us to deliver our strategy safely. Contractors and suppliers are required to work to the same high standards as our employees. #5 Responsibility focused culture Cairn has an established, highly experienced and respected leadership team which is committed to working responsibly in delivering company strategy. We never compromise our operating standards. Our focus on delivering value in a safe, secure and environmentally and socially responsible manner is one of our strategic objectives and is measured through our company Key Performance Indicators. WHAT CAI RN OFFE RS Our responsible approach Our approach is governed by our commitment to working responsibly across all our activities. This means working in a safe, secure, environmentally and socially responsible manner. Our experience Cairn has over 30 years’ experience as an operator and partner at all stages of the oil and gas life cycle and has successfully discovered and developed oil and gas reserves in a number of international locations in partnership with host governments. Our expertise and agility We pride ourselves on seeing value where others might not and on being the right size of organisation to move quickly and responsibly to pursue this value. 8 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T DEVELOPMENT PRODUCTION 2-5 years 10-25 years Appraise Develop Produce Return & reinvest A D D I N G VA LU E R E A LI S I N G VA LU E Moving exploration success into development, or acquiring development assets, adds value. Progressing development assets into production results in cash flow to reinvest or return to shareholders, realises value. This culture of working responsibly is embedded throughout our business in our management systems and is enshrined in our policies and principles. We operate to international, leading industry standards in health, safety and environmental management and we never compromise our standards. We look for partners who share the same fundamental commitment to international good practice, ensuring projects are managed in a responsible and respectful manner. We have a track record of safe and effective operations and extensive experience operating both onshore and offshore, in shallow and deep water locations, in remote and frontier locations and in benign and harsh weather environments. Our industry experience has included opening new oil basins and creating value through exploration success and commercialising resources across South Asia and most recently in West Africa. Cairn created transformational growth and significant value through the discovery in 2004, and subsequent development and production, of hydrocarbons in Rajasthan, India. More recently Cairn drilled the first ever deepwater wells offshore Senegal which resulted in two basin opening discoveries, one of which was the largest global oil discovery of 2014. CRE ATI N G VALU E RE S P ONS I B LY We are committed to making a positive contribution, wherever we operate, by delivering tangible benefits to our stakeholders. This includes the value distributed through salaries, taxes, payments to authorities, contractors and suppliers, capital spending and social investment. Oil and gas sales revenue Payments to governments US$504m US$37.8m Capital expenditure Social investment US$242m* US$483,995 Employee salaries and benefits US$39.1m * Net of US$27m tax refund and US$21m Nova working capital reimbursement  For more information please see our Corporate Responsibility Report: www.cairnenergy.com/working-responsibly Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 9 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T A Responsible Approach We strive to deliver value in a safe, secure, environmentally and socially responsible manner for all our stakeholders. Internally, we have in place comprehensive systems and standards which reinforce our culture of working responsibly. Externally, we adhere to key global standards promoting responsible working practices. Leadership and strong corporate governance are key to ensuring we operate in accordance with these standards and systems.  Read more: CEO's Review on P7 and Leadership and Governance on P72 Internal Values Our core values are known as the 3Rs: Respect, Relationships and Responsibility. Code of Ethics Employees and partners are required to work in accordance with the code which sets out our core values, behaviours and Business Principles. Revised and reissued in 2019.  Read more: Business Principles on P53 Key Policies – Health, Safety and Security – Environment – Social Responsibility – Major Accident Prevention – People – Tax Corporate Responsibility Management System Our key management system instructs employees how to carry out business activities in accordance with the business strategy, Code of Ethics and CR Policies and is reviewed annually by the Board. CRMS revised against leading global performance standards in 2019. Human Rights Our Human Rights Guidance defines how we identify, assess and manage potential human rights issues at key project stages. Guidance updated in 2019. Anti-Bribery and Corruption We have a zero-tolerance position on ABC matters; everyone we work with must sign up to our ABC policy. 3 R s UNGC Cod e o f Ethic s s licie o P C R M S H u R m i g a n h t s ABC T C F D U N S D G s C IF E I T I M SA 10 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 External 3 R s UNGC ABC T C F D Cod e o f Ethic s s licie o P C R M S H u R m i g a n h t s U N S D G s C IF E I T I M SA S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T United Nations Global Compact We support this initiative for businesses committed to aligning their strategies with universally accepted principles in human rights, labour, environment and anti-corruption. Participation renewed in 2019. Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative We participate in the EITI, the coalition of governments, companies and society promoting transparency of payments in oil, gas and mining sectors. Membership renewed in 2019. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals We support the 17 goals which help to guide us in minimising impacts and maximising benefits of our activities in countries where we work. International Finance Corporation We align our CRMS with the IFC Performance Standards on Social and Environmental Sustainability. Modern Slavery Act We operate in accordance with the UK MSA. Our selection procedure for service providers includes modern slavery assessments. Our MSA statement is available online. Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures We continue to assess our reporting against TCFD, complying with a number of recommended disclosures.  Read more: Climate Change Policy and Energy Transition on P46 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 11 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T United Nations Sustainable Development Goals We support the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). The SDGs are a series of 17 goals to promote prosperity for all while protecting the environment. They provide the business community with a framework for assessing the impact and value of their activities. We assess our contributions through civil society commentary, stakeholder enquiries and community engagement. Not all 17 goals can be applicable to every business. Our contributions to goals applicable to our business in 2019 are summarised below. Minimise negative impacts SDG Maximise positive impacts Minimise negative impacts SDG Maximise positive impacts Requisite payments to host governments throughout our operations  Read more on P55 Continued to offer employee health benefits across organisation  Read more CR Report Developed and delivered health and well-being initiatives  Read more CR Report Continued to support English language training for students at the Earth Sciences Institute (IST) in Senegal  Read more on P65 Joined a cross-industry initiative to support a vocational training institute (NATIM) in Suriname Read more on P28  Maintained a robust equality and diversity policy; increased female board representation during year  Read more on P57 Production of oil and gas to meet energy demands through the transition to a low carbon economy. Contribute to energy security for host nations; Senegal development expected to contribute to domestic gas supply substantially replacing higher carbon sources of electricity generation in Senegal Read more on P65  Continued to implement policies for local procurement and supplier development  Read more on P65 Continued to support the development of a National Institute of Oil and Gas (INPG) through our joint venture in Senegal  Read more on P65 Continued to support Invest in Africa in Senegal, training local businesses and setting up a portal for SMEs to access oil and gas contracts  Read more on P65 Continued to support EITI in promoting transparent payments to governments by the extractive industry and promoting fair distribution of benefits in host nations Attended the global EITI conference  Read more on P55 Promoted human rights, environmental and safety standards through contracts and monitoring  Read more on P64 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 Continued to apply robust waste and chemical management plans throughout our operations  Read more on P60 Implemented measures to minimise disruption to fishing activities offshore Mexico, Suriname and the UK and Norway  Read more on P63 Enhanced employee travel health and security risk management  Read more on P59 Continued to apply CRMS to protect health and safety of workers  Read more on P58 Trained employees in travel health and security risk management  Read more on P59 Implemented EIA and Environmental Management Plan measures for operations in Mexico, Norway, Suriname and the UK to protect water quality around our operations  Read more on P62 12 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T UN SDGs in Action Minimise negative impacts SDG Maximise positive impacts Mitigated emissions by minimising energy consumption and flaring Endorsement of Global Gas Flare Reduction Partnership  Read more on P46 Subjected all 2019 operations to EIA and environmental management measures in line with our CRMS and Environmental Policy Read more on P62  Implemented robust programmes for accident prevention and preparedness and response  Read more on P58 Continued to adhere to our robust human rights policies to ensure human rights violations do not occur in supply chain  Read more on P64 Improved awareness of human rights with a workshop and training  Read more on P64 Engaged with marine authorities in Mexico and set up a local grievance mechanism  Read more on P63 Contribution to climate change adaption through social investment  Read more on P28 Promoted deferred production of gas in preference to flaring with our non-operated partners  Read more on P48 Funding provided to Heriot Watt university to support clean energy research themes Shared findings of all ESIAs with government authorities  Read more on P62 Conducted biodiversity studies in Mexico and monitored sea turtles Read more on P62  Maintained robust ABC management policies and procedures  Read more on P55 Support to institutional training in Senegal  Read more on P65 EITI reporting in participating countries  Read more on P55 Continued to support the UNGC  Read more on P7 Supported the new 2019 EITI standard Read more on P55  Our contribution to the UN SDGs through our activities in Senegal is described in detail on page 65. Our contribution to the UN SDGs through our historic activities in India is described in detail on page 14. Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 13 13 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T UN SDGs in Action C A S E S T U D Y L A U N C H O F S O C I O - E C O N O M I C I M P A C T S T U D Y In November 2019 the UK India Business Council launched a campaign to highlight the importance of the socio-economic contribution that UK businesses make in India. The campaign is being delivered in partnership with the UN Development Programme to harness the resources in finance, innovation and strategy of the business sector in India for the successful implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs are an ambitious declaration of global aspirations, ranging from eliminating poverty, hunger, and violence against women to providing legal identity and equal access to justice to every person in the world. Adopted unanimously by the 193 UN Member States in September 2015, the SDGs are meant to guide global development efforts for 15 years, from 2015 to 2030. Cairn’s investment in India was presented at the launch event of the Socio-Economic Impact Study in Delhi as an example of British business working in support of the SDGs. “ We started Kiri Logistics in 2003 when Cairn came to Rajasthan for the first time. They were the ones who gave us this chance and employed local youth. We were able to use this opportunity and prove ourselves to reach this position.” Lalit Kiri, entrepreneur and Director of Kiri Logistics, service providers to the Indian and international oil and gas industry. 14 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T C A S E S T U D Y I N V E S T M E N T L E G A C Y I N R A J A S T H A N August 2019 marked the 10th anniversary of first oil from Mangala Oil Field in Rajasthan, the largest onshore discovery in India for more than 25 years. From a barren desert landscape, Cairn discovered more than one billion barrels of oil which continues to generate significant revenues for the country with more than US$20 billion to the Indian Government to date. Together with its joint venture partners Cairn invested ~US$6bn in projects that have benefitted the nation and local communities: – Rainwater harvesting, capacity to store more than 10 million litres of drinking water – Mobile health van, serving over 8,500 people in remote local communities – Enterprise Centre, training more than 3,000 people, supporting development of local businesses – Rural dairy development, over 900 dairy farmers registered in different co-operatives Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 15 15 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T External Industry Overview This industry overview, provided by Heriot-Watt University, gives an independent view of the industry in which Cairn operates. About the authors: Dr Julian Fennema – Honorary Associate Professor at Heriot-Watt University Dr Erkal Ersoy – Assistant Professor at Heriot-Watt University, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy Heriot-Watt University is one of the UK’s leading universities for business and industry. The university’s Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy (CEERP) research group forms a key point of support and collaboration with the energy industry. Cairn has a well-established and long standing relationship with Heriot-Watt University, promoting the exchange of learning across academia and industry. Most recently Cairn has collaborated to support a new energy scholarship programme at Heriot-Watt. This programme will focus on developing future talent and research in subsurface and geosciences to help create a lower carbon future. 1 Based on a comparison of Stated Policies and Sustainable Development scenarios from IEA World Energy Outlook 2019. 2 Primary energy demand in the OECD countries has been grown by just 0.6% over 2008-2018 but the economies have grown by 16.6%. 3 The current car fleet is highly inefficient, converting approximately 30% of potential energy into kinetic energy (the remainder is lost as heat or sound). Improvements to the non-electric car fleet are expected to stem over nine million barrels per day of growth in oil demand, three times more than that expected from the introduction of 300 million electric vehicles to the fleet. For developing economies, with a relatively small passenger vehicle fleet compared to overall oil consumption there are fewer efficiency gains to be made, such that the growth effect again dominates the efficiency effect. 4 Under the IEA’s Stated Policies scenario as discussed in the World Energy Outlook 2019. 5 According to OGA: https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/data-centre/data-downloads- and-publications/well-data/ 6 https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/upstream- renaissance-for-the-uk-offshore-sector/ 7 https://oilandgasuk.co.uk/product/economic-report/ 8 These include Neptune Energy’s Seagull, Apache North Sea’s Storr, and Wintershall Dea’s Sillimanite, which straddles the UK-Netherlands border. 9 https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2019/may/article480304/. These figures are C1 + C2, which is equivalent to proved + probable + possible reserves. 10 https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/operational- production-costs-have-fallen-globally/ 1 CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY AND ENERGY TR ANSITION 2019 has seen continuing momentum in the public discourse, from government and regulators to protests by individuals and focus groups, on the need for an energy transition to address the question of climate change. There remains, however, a gap between the high-level rhetoric and the detail, and between policies committed to date and those required for sustainable, accessible energy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), under currently planned policies the levels of carbon emissions in 2040 will be double those targeted by the 2016 Paris Agreement.1 Even the levels projected in the Sustainable Development Scenario do not yet meet the levels proposed in the 2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ᵒºC by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In a growing world economy, two strong and counteracting forces act on the total demand for energy. The production of more goods and services requires increased energy consumption but, as technology progresses, less energy is consumed per unit of economic output. In advanced economies, the efficiency effect dominates2. Whilst ever more efficient technologies are being implemented, in developing countries the economic growth effect outweighs the efficiency gains. These developing countries are expected to account for more of global economic growth than the advanced economies, such that overall global energy demand is forecast to rise by around a quarter by 2040, albeit with a doubling of overall output. The extent and composition of this energy consumption growth is highly uncertain, with unknown technical progress and government policies on climate change influencing the market supply and demand for different fuels. World Energy Outlook (WEO): IEA 2019 change in energy demand 2018-2040 by region and fuel 1,000 e o t 500M 0 -500 China India Africa Middle East SE Asia Japan US EU Coal Oil Gas Low-Carbon Technology in a sector tends to dictate the fuel – transport accounts for 65% of total oil consumption. Whilst the efficiency effect characterises the transport sector in advanced economies3 with falling oil demand as a result, this is counteracted by the growth effect for the developing economies. Under current policies, therefore, demand for oil is expected to plateau by 20404, with quantity reductions only occurring if new policy measures are introduced. 16 Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T Increasing interconnections in world markets, from new pipelines and developments in liquefied natural gas trade, will continue to drive the adoption of gas as a lower carbon form of energy, in particular for electricity generation as a greener substitute for coal. Coal currently represents 27% of primary energy supply and emits the most carbon per unit of electricity – making it the easiest win in reducing carbon emissions consistent with the Paris Accord. Amongst the developing countries China’s substitution away from coal, however, is outweighed by the growth from India, although continued moves away from coal in advanced economies drive the expectation for a small reduction overall. 2 NORTH SE A North Sea exploration was on the rise in 2019, with a doubling of UK offshore exploratory drilling after a low level of activity in 2018.5 This level of activity is comparable to those we saw in early to mid- 2010s and is the highest since 2012. This pattern signals the capital commitments and portfolio adjustments in 2018 taking effect in 2019. Further, offshore development drilling increased by approximately 50% year-on-year between 2018 and 2019. This level of activity could be maintained in the medium term with Rystad predicting up to 38 new project commitments in the next three years.6 Such a development would pave the way for a surge of activity for contractors and service companies operating within the shelf. This, in conjunction with the evolving operator landscape in the UKCS, could breathe new life into the sector. According to Oil and Gas UK (OGUK)7, several projects in the UK Continental Shelf have been given the green light for investment in 2019.8 Hurricane’s Lincoln field in the West of Shetland remains the largest development at an estimated $5.4 billion.7 These come in addition to the buzz created by CNOOC and Total’s Glengorm discovery in early 2019, which is the largest gas discovery in the UK since Culzean in 2008. However, these greenfield developments do not represent the whole picture. Value creation through merger and acquisition activities has continued in 2019, amounting to over $5 billion.7 Chrysaor’s acquisition of the majority of ConocoPhillips’ UK portfolio topped the list at a value approximately half this total figure. This signals the continuation of the 'acquire and exploit' approach, where under-capitalised assets’ operational processes are streamlined to optimise production and lower costs. Across both greenfield and brownfield investments, the North Sea has had a dynamic year in 2019. 3 GLOBAL E XPLOR ATION Elsewhere, Russian arctic waters hosted exploration success with Dinkov and Nyarmeyskoye discoveries amounting together to nearly 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent.9 Exxon’s success in the disputed waters of Cyprus placed the country on the map once again with an estimated 5-8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas that, if developed, could reduce European dependence on Russian gas. In 2019, discoveries in Africa were not far behind other geographic hotspots. According to Rystad, top ten largest conventional discoveries featured Mauritania, South Africa, and Ghana. With nearly 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, these countries jointly accounted for over a quarter of the global total. 4 COST ENVIRONMENT AND INVESTMENT TRENDS IHS capital and operating cost indices through the third quarter of 2019 show subtle signs of cost inflation in line with the trend we observed in 2018. Although the operating cost index appears to have stabilised in 2019, these indices are aggregated and, therefore, conceal regional divergences. For example, the unit operation costs for UKCS operators have declined by approximately 30% from their global high since 2014, while other markets have seen slight cost inflation over the same period.10 The upward pressure on the barrel price tends to have a tightening effect on the market for inputs to the production process, but with a lag, so the downward price trend we experienced in 2019 did not translate into declining cost indices globally. The graph below shows the linkages between the oil price and the capital cost (the cost of constructing a producing facility) and the operating cost (the ongoing cost of producing from this facility). Within the deepwater market, sustained Floating Production Storage Offloading (FPSO) utilisation rates and increases in offshore exploration, and subsequent development, are likely to drive strong demand in factor inputs in the short to medium term. A key determinant of this will be Field Investment Decisions (FIDs) being considered in boardrooms, especially given the uptick in exploration success in 2019. In the big picture, decisions in 2020 are likely to be critical in setting the scene for the next few years. IHS cost and Brent crude price indices 250 200 C o s t I n d e x 150 100 50 500 400 300 P r i c e I n d e x 200 100 2019 saw a surge of exploration activity and the highest discovered volumes since 2015, indicating that the decreased appetite for exploration that we observed in 2018 seems to have become a thing of the past. Guyana continued to bring exploration success, and Europe and South America offered up the most oil and gas discoveries in the second and third quarters of the year. 0 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2019 0 Operating Costs Capital Costs Oil Price Index Capital and operating cost indices from IHS Markit and oil price index (2000 = 100) based on Brent FOB price ($) from EIA. Cairn Energy PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2019 17 S T R A T E G I C R E P O R T O P E R A T I O N A L R E V I E W 2019 Summary – ᵒNet oil production averaged ~23,000 bopd, at upper end of guidance (2018: 17,500 bopd) – Oil and gas sales revenue US$504m (2018: US$396m), average realised oil price US$65.70/bbl; average production cost US$17.4/boe – Net cash inflow from oil and gas production US$390m – Capital expenditure was US$242m* – Year end Group cash US$147m, excludes proceeds from sale of Capricorn Norge of ~US$108m, completed in February 2020 – Operating profit US$155m (2018: Operating loss US$129m) – Net impairment reversal of US$68m (2018: charge of US$166m): Reversal of US$147m Kraken impairment, offset by US$79m goodwill impairment – ᵒIncrease 2P reserves by 150% to 142 mmboe 2020 Outlook – Estimated net production of 19,000 to 23,000 bopd; targeting average production cost

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